Archive for critical thinking

The Rational Mystic 2012

Well folks we’re here…

We’ve made it through Elenin which kinda fizzled out like a damp sparkler and we’re into 2012 and yes change is in the air with the NEW LOOK Rational Mystic Blog….

Ok, so I know January is all but over, however I have been neglecting this blog – mostly because of the work that has been going into Penwith Radio in general and The Real Twilight Zone in particular. I really hope you’re aware of  both!

So. to kick things off in this new blog I thought I’d share a couple of skeptical videos – something that I hope will draw comment and provoke discussion.

The first is from Skeptic Michael Shermer

And the second from the magician turned skeptic – James Randi

 

Enjoy…

Comments welcomed and encouraged…

 

 

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Thinking Skills and Meaningful Debate

The Art of Debate

I have an opinion based upon my knowledge, experience, beliefs and attitudes.

You have an opinion based upon your knowledge, experience, beliefs and attitudes.

When we undertake to discuss these opinions we will often make a statement which we believe to be ‘true’ based upon ‘what we know’.

When we discuss personal truths our emotions get in the way and so debate can fall into adversarial and personal conflict very quickly.

If we are serious about having the debate and learning from the sharing of each others experience then it is worth considering a way of doing so constructively.

For me choosing to enter into a debate has the element of playfulness, sometimes from the devils advocate position, and intellectual challenge. There is also the desire to test “what I think I know” against the expertise of others and if presented with compelling argument to be willing to reconsider my own position and opinion.

The following framework for debate is one suggested by my use of Edward de Bono’s thinking tools.

The process involves the collective ‘mind power’ of all engaged in the debate.

A statement is made.

As such it will have an emotional hook for the person making the statement.

All parties explore the evidence and information there is on offer about this statement.

This evidence must be able to be verified.

It is not about more opinion and rhetoric, but about what others (outside of the debate) have published and said about the issue. All evidence pertinent to the statement is included no mater whose original position it seems to support.

The relevance of this shared evidence is assessed as to its relationship with the original statement. In essence the ‘pros’ and ‘cons’ of the information offered needs to be discussed.

Those involved with the debate need to consider what other evidence would be useful in exploring the statement. If necessary they could see if this evidence exists (if it does then its relevance can be assessed) and if it does not exist then thought be put into how this evidence could be obtained.

Only when these previous steps have been followed can individuals reassess the initial statement in the light of what is now known, or perhaps what is yet to be discovered.

At this point we’re back to the emotional connection individuals have to the initial statement. If they are being true to the spirit of debate it may well be that the statement can be rejected, upheld or redefined.

The process can start again with the next (new) statement,

This very simple process means that all are engaged in exploration of an issue rather than taking an adversarial stance from the outset. We are capitalising on the collective minds of the people involved rather than the regular divide and conquer of traditional debate.

For those experienced in some of Dr de Bono’s tools you will recognise the “red”, “white”, “yellow”, “black”, “green”, “red” sequence of the framework. For those wanting to know more then contact me on the address below.

Logical Fallacies

In an original statement or in the debate that follows it may be possible to identify some simple flaws in logic.

Some of the more obvious of these logical fallacies include:-

The Argument from Authority

This is where a statement is said to be true simply because of the authority, or presumed authority of the person making the statement.


Professor Moriaty said …… therefore it must be tue….



The Argument from Ignorance

Making the assumption something is true or false depending upon whether the speaker knows it to be true or false


Well I can’t see how my brain does that so the idea must be wrong

Argument from Incredulity

When what is being presented is beyond the listeners level of current knowledge or understanding.


Well I can’t imagine how that could work so it must be impossible



The Argument from Antiquity

The assumption that because an idea or statement comes from an ancient or historical source it is true or valid


The Ancient Chinese practised Tai Chi so it must be beneficial

The Argument from Popularity

The notion that just because something is popular it must be true (or false)

Everyone has been finding that this works so it must do something….

Naturalistic Fallacy

The argument that because something is natural it is necessarily good, beneficial or pleasant

This treatment is based upon natural products so therefore it works…





Post Hoc Ero Propter Hoc (after this therefore because of this)

The idea that because one event follows another then the first event must have caused the second… This is often noticed when there is an mathematical correlation which does not necessarily have a causal link,

Statistically there may be a correlation between the number of storks and the number of births but assume the one causes or is related to the other is fallacious

Red Herring

When the person presenting the argument moves away from the question at hand in an attempt to distract the listener

The discussion is evolution…

Science has shown that natural selection is a viable theory…

OK, well what about the Big Bang, where did it all come from, and we know that scientists get things wrong – I mean they were wrong about…

Retrospective Determinism

The idea that because some event has occurred then it must have been inevitable.


The Tsunami was always going to happen and was always going to happen because….

Cherry Picking

Ignoring the breadth of information or research available and only picking that which supports the argument.

These three studies into homeopathy prove that….

Ignoring the many others that show otherwise

Teleological Fallacy

This is the notion that some idea has a purpose and that that alone means that it must be true.


Mediums provide a valuable service supporting grieving people and so they are able to genuinely connect to the other-side, which of course means the afterlife is real because they (the mediums) can talk to spirits there!

(OK so I’ve also hidden a circular argument in that example, but I think it still makes sense)

False Analogy

Making a link between two unrelated observations or situations where no link exists…


The number of repeats on TV and the resulting boredom can be linked to the decline in motivation in young people.

Appeal to Emotions

A frequently used technique where the argument stands or falls on an appeal not to logic or fact but to emotions such as fear, desire, hope, love, belonging. Really easy to spot in TV adverts where imagery is used to link a desire to a product.


Poisoning the Well

A particular Appeal to Emotions which connects ideas in such away as to discredit the source of the idea.


Well look, Hitler used Darwin’s ideas

Appeal to Flattery

An argument which presupposes that accepting it is what all good, intelligent, honest, worthy or just people do.

Accepting this idea is the smart thing to do…

Ad Hominem

Where the person presenting the argument is attacked and not the substance of the argument.

Why should we believe what you say we all know you are a closed minded, scientific hack!

Sharpshooter Fallacy

Picking the target of your comment or idea or proof after the event in order to prove you are right


I predicted something terrible would happen and look here’s the Tsunami that proves I was right….

Historians Fallacy

The assumption that people, and decision makers, of the past perceived events from the same perspective and with the same information that we have today…

Next time you listen to a debate, or read about the latest craze see if you can question the logic behind the information you are expected to take at face value.


Let’s look at an article from the Daily Mail


Vaccines are like Russian roulette – we’d rather take a chance with the diseases, say parents who refuse to give their babies jabs.

The headline is an appeal to emotions and a particularly dramatic false anaology.

There is also a suggest appeal to popularity (parents) implies a number of people hold the same view.


When Max Sullivan was born two years ago, his father Paul, a 41-year-old IT consultant, and his accountant mother Karen, 34, were prepared for their first foray into parenthood.

An immediate appeal to authority – an IT consultant must be savvy?

An appeal to emotion – connecting the reader to the parents

“We bought the best pram we could, a Bugaboo. It’s like a tank,” says Paul.
“We checked toys were safe and bought stair-gates and caps for the corners of the tables for when he started walking. And when he was two months old we followed the doctor’s orders and took him for his first set of immunisations: the five-in-one jab that combines the DPT – diphtheria, pertissus (whooping cough) and tetanus, polio and Hib (haemophilus influenzae type B) vaccines.

Note the use of the phrase “doctors orders” – the article is already casting the likeable, smart and caring parents as being antagonised by the Doctor.

“We took him for boosters at three and four months, as instructed.”

Again “instructed” when read in conjunction with the previous statement of ‘doctors orders’ seems to be moving towards an appeal to emotion (fear, mistrust?)

The couple were model parents. But then Paul and Karen received a letter inviting Max to have the new meningitis C jab.

Non sequiteur – what does being a model parent have to do with receiving a letter? {Possibly a Red Herring)

“It seemed like too much to be giving such a tiny baby,” says Paul.

Argument from incredulity – what does Paul really know about medicine?

“We started to look into it online and read reports of headaches and swollen arms to meningitis-like symptoms that have put some children in hospital.

Argument from Popularity – what if anything is the internet, but a collection of popular comments and a range of articles from individuals of varying expertise, Search engines can be regarded as presenting the popular sites in preference to sites of authority.

“The nurse did call and try to persuade us but she couldn’t provide us with hard facts about how safe it was and we decided to call things to a halt.”

Interesting – what ‘hard facts’ were required. Also what about hard facts about unsafe it was not to vaccinate?

The couple chose to stop vaccinating their son and instead use a healthy diet to boost his immune system.

Naturalistic Fallacy perhaps – the reference to some kind of unspecified ‘health diet’, There is also a potential false analogy (a healthy diet boosts the immune system) and a real lack of understanding of ‘boosting the immune system’ which would need further information from medical specialists.


They claim they were “unnerved” by the uncertainty surrounding the effects that vaccinations can have on children, in the wake of the combined measles, mumps and rubella vaccination (MMR) scandal that controversially linked the triple jab to autism.

Appeal the emotions – uncertainty.

Unsubstantiated claim – not a fallacy as such, but the “scandal that controversially linked the triple jab to autism”…

However it does contain a post hoc ergo propter hoc assertion… vaccines cause autism

Max remains vulnerable to life-threatening diseases having not been vaccinated against meningitis C, pneumococcal – an infection that can lead to pneumonia or septicaemia – measles, mumps and rubella.
He will also not be given boosters to assure continued immunity to diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough or polio.

“We believe there is a problem with vaccines in general – the MMR debate just put a spotlight on the issue,” says Paul.

The personal belief statement could be considered as an argument from ignorance and in this case suggests that there is a gap in the knowledge and understanding of recent information related to vaccines.

The media can be accused of using a headline which promotes a particular idea – that vaccines are as risky as playing Russian Roulette. Yet the article presents no actual evidence or information about vaccines or the MMR ‘controversy’,

The use of the word ‘controversy’ implies that there is a controversy over the main theme of the article – safety, This in turn implies (especially by its reference to a nurse who had ‘no hard facts’) that the controversy is a medical-scientific one.

There is so much room in this article for debate, but if I go back to my thinking frame work then we need to ask a very simple question.

What evidence is there for vaccines being ‘unsafe’?

Putting behind us all of the emotions related to families who are experiencing autism first hand, the real issue is about the facts, evidence and ideas put forward by those who have expertise in the area of vaccinations.

This is an exercise that you might like to do for yourself, if this issue interest you, but perhaps I can throw in a couple of ideas to start your research.


The blog Neurologica
The blog/podcast Quackwatch
The podcast Skeptoid

Then search

Wakefield + BMA
Herd Immunity
Mercury in Vaccines
Mercury in Vaccines + Skeptic
Vaccines and Autism
Vaccines and Autism + Skeptic

The firs few pages of a Google web search for MMR and Vaccines will produce host of site sponsored by, or endorsed by the anti-vaccination lobby, If information is what you are seeking and not endorsement of an existing belief you need to avoid the temptation to ‘cherry pick’; question ‘arguments from popularity” and arguments purely from “authority”.

In terms of authority I would prefer to take my information from those working directly in the field rather than the celebrities who take positions which may not be based upon sound research and empirical evaluation.

But that’s just me….

Daily Mail Article
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-557442/Vaccines-like-Russian-roulette–wed-chance-diseases-say-parents-refuse-babies-jabs.html#ixzz13CGYAlIO

Einstien Proves God Exists

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Last night (12th September) I was read a story about a college student who challenged his atheist College Professor to a game of logic in which he eventually proved that God existed. The punch line was that this God fearing student was non other than Albert Einstein.

I must admit that this was not the first time I had heard the story and I did ask the ‘reader’ to quote the source for this story (and remembered that that had been my request the last time I had heard it). The immediate red flag for me for such stories is that there is an ‘appeal to authority’ embedded within it.

The appeal to authority is a particular logical fallacy wherein the mention of a name or qualification that is associated with  ‘intelligence’ or ‘knowledge’ or ‘wisdom’ is supposed to bring some degree of integrity or credibility to the claim, or in this case story. It suggests that our thinking should be, in this case, well Einstein was a clever guy and HE could outwit his teachers at a young age SO the conclusions must be valid and correct.

This is woolly and woo woo thinking at its best.

So I decided to look this quote up for myself. Remembering only the bear bones of the story and typing “anecdote einstein student and professor” into Google I was immediately given the information I sought.

It took 20 seconds … that’s 19.75 for me to type into the Google search box and 0.25 seconds for Google to return the results.

The story is an Urban Legend (sorry folks) and before we look at the detail lets make a simple observation.

If we are going to use anecdotes to make a point, more importantly if we are using that anecdote with an air of authority it is worth 20 seconds to check the source or validity of what we are quoting. Being sensitive to the some of the key logical fallacies which are rife in so many Mystical and Pseudo-Scientific writings is one thing; actually checking sources of information is another.

Apart from the appeal to authority ‘red flag’ in the story there are other signs within the construction of the argument that may well have caused some question if read critically.

So what is the story – in outline it is printed below

The professor of a university challenged his students with this question. “Did God create everything that exists?” A student answered bravely, “Yes, he did”. 



The professor then asked, “If God created everything, then he created evil. Since evil exists (as noticed by our own actions), so God is evil. The student couldn’t respond to that statement causing the professor to conclude that he had “proved” that “belief in God” was a fairy tale, and therefore worthless. 


Another student raised his hand and asked the professor, “May I pose a question? ” “Of course” answered the professor. 


The young student stood up and asked : “Professor does Cold exists?”
The professor answered, “What kind of question is that? …Of course the cold exists… haven’t you ever been cold?” 

The young student answered, “In fact sir, Cold does not exist. According to the laws of Physics, what we consider cold, in fact is the absence of heat. Anything is able to be studied as long as it transmits energy (heat). Absolute Zero is the total absence of heat, but cold does not exist. What we have done is create a term to describe how we feel if we don’t have body heat or we are not hot.” 



“And, does Dark exist?”, he continued. The professor answered “Of course”. This time the student responded, “Again you’re wrong, Sir. Darkness does not exist either. Darkness is in fact simply the absence of light. Light can be studied, darkness can not. Darkness cannot be broken down. A simple ray of light tears the darkness and illuminates the surface where the light beam finishes. Dark is a term that we humans have created to describe what happens when there’s lack of light.” 



Finally, the student asked the professor, “Sir, does evil exist?” The professor replied, “Of course it exists, as I mentioned at the beginning, we see violations, crimes and violence anywhere in the world, and those things are evil.” 


The student responded, “Sir, Evil does not exist. Just as in the previous cases, Evil is a term which man has created to describe the result of the absence of God’s presence in the hearts of man.”
After this, the professor bowed down his head, and didn’t answer back.



The young man’s name was ALBERT EINSTEIN. 

I admit that the story told last night had some additional elements – mostly to do with not being able to prove the brain exists because you couldn’t see which as an addition is something that actually should have alerted the critical faculties immediately – but in essence it is all there.

So how do we know it is (extremely likely – almost certainly) an Urban Myth?

Well researchers who research such things (check out snopes.com) track these kind of stories.

This tale of a young Albert Einstein proving the existence of God to his atheist professor first began circulating in 2004. One reason we know it isn’t true is that the same story was already making the rounds five years earlier with no mention of Einstein in it at all.


Another reason we know it isn’t true is that Einstein was a self-described agnostic who didn’t believe in what he called a “personal God.”

He wrote: “[T]he word God is for me nothing more than the expression and product of human weaknesses, the Bible a collection of honorable but still primitive legends which are nevertheless pretty childish.” 


And, finally, we know it isn’t true because Einstein was a careful thinker who wouldn’t have abided the specious logic attributed to him here. As written, the argument neither disproves the existence of evil nor proves the existence of God.


Specious logic
 
The claim that cold “doesn’t exist” because the laws of physics say it’s merely the “absence of heat” is semantic game-playing. Heat is a noun, the name of a physical phenomenon (thermal energy). Cold is an adjective, a description. To say that something is cold, or that we feel cold, or even that we’re going out in “the cold,” is not to assert that cold “exists.” It’s simply to describe the relative temperature of things.


The same applies to light (in this context a noun), and dark (an adjective). It’s true that when we say, “It’s dark outside,” what we’re actually describing is a relative absence of light in the vicinity. But that doesn’t mean that by speaking of “the dark” we’re mistaking it for a thing that “exists.” We’re merely describing the degree of illumination we perceive.


It’s thus a philosophical parlor trick to posit heat and cold (or light and dark) as a pair of opposite entities, only to “reveal” that the second term doesn’t really name an entity at all, but merely the absence of the first. The young Einstein would have known better; so would his professor.


Even if we allowed that faulty premise to stand, the argument would still founder on the conclusion that evil “doesn’t exist” because it’s only a term we use to describe “the absence of God’s presence in our hearts.”

Why?

It simply doesn’t follow.

The case, such as it is, has been built on the unpacking of purported opposites — heat vs. cold, light vs. dark. But what is the opposite of evil? Good. To be consistent, the conclusion therefore ought to be: evil doesn’t exist because it’s only a term we use to describe the absence of good.

You may argue that good is the presence of God in men’s hearts, but in that case you’d be assuming what you originally set out to prove: that God exists in the first place.

Augustine’s theodicy
 
Albeit thoroughly butchered in the above instance, the argument as a whole is a classic example of what’s known in Christian apologetics as a theodicy — a defense of the proposition that God can be defined as all-good and all-powerful despite having created a world in which evil exists. This particular form of theodicy, based on the idea that evil is to good as darkness is to light (the former, in each case, being reducible to the absence of the latter), is usually credited to Augustine of Hippo, who first laid out the argument some 1600 years ago. God didn’t create evil, Augustine concluded. Evil enters the world — which is to say, good departs from it — via man’s free will.


Which opens up an even bigger can of philosophical worms — the problem of free will vs. determinism — but we needn’t go there. Suffice it to say that even if one finds Augustine’s free-will loophole persuasive it doesn’t prove that God exists. It only proves that the existence of evil isn’t inconsistent with the existence of an omnipotent, omnibenevolent deity.


Einstein’s religion
 
From everything we know about Albert Einstein, all this scholastic navel gazing would have bored him to tears. As a theoretical physicist he found the order and complexity of the universe awe-inspiring enough to call the experience “religious.” As a sensitive human being he took a profound interest in questions of morality. But none of this, to him, pointed in the direction of a supreme being.


“It does not lead us to take the step of fashioning a god-like being in our own image,” he explained when asked about the religious implications of relativity. “For this reason, people of our type see in morality a purely human matter, albeit the most important in the human sphere.”

There is a lesson for us all here, it is one that makes up the four key skills of learning I ramble on and on about in my educational work (www.alanjoneseducation.com).

In this case it is the ability to access and assess information.

With more and more information being made available on the internet every day it is crucially important for us to be able to ask meaningful questions about what we are presented with and expected to take on board as some kind of ‘truth’

Alan