It hasn’t taken long for the Astro-Armageddon pundits to stake claim in predicting the terrible events of the last few days in Japan.
Here’s one such opportunist whose commentator writes, with more than a hint of sarcasm:-
“That’s as accurate as any true astrologer can hope to get. Can the great man suggest measures to alleviate our poverty and standard of living? A Herculean task indeed – but who knows he might prove to be better than all the economists put together as they seem to be more interested in the stats rather than improving the standard of living of the poorest of the lot. Can he also suggest how to prevent communal riots in our country? Okay, all of the above is wishful thinking and humanly impossible to predict and prevent – as the good man for all his honourable intentions can only predict, not edict! Good luck to him.”
So what was the prediction?
“Planetary configurations reveal that within about one month from January 4, 2011 some sort of military operations and unkind nature may cause them much tension and anxieties. Diseases and epidemics are also feared. In fact the period ending June 2, 1011 is horrible and they must take effective measures to protect themselves from severe troubles like escalation of military operations, more ferocious weather and nature including volcanic eruptions.
Setback to government and Parliament, eruption of violence and huge loss of property and life is feared. The periods around April and May 2011 are more horrible. The year 2011 is highly ominous and the (Japanese) people should remain ready to meet unexpected challenges which they may develop (sic) in this year.”
The owner and provenance of this piece of prophetic prose..
Vijay Madan, the son of noted Indian astrologer Lachhman Das Madan, who puts down his predictions in writing in Babaji, a montly magazine that he edits on religion and astrology.
His enthusiastic supporter writes…
“And in the magazine’s December 2010 edition he had predicted the devastation that has since befallen Japan.” (my emphasis)
Really – so ‘unexpected challenges’ translates to ‘predicting’ the devastation!
Oh my dear cosmic joker – talk about the need for subjective validation and desperation!
I mean the rest of the predictive outpourings are less than ‘specific’ and could be considered as the kind of speculative thinking we can all engage in.
Actually to give this guy his credit he did make a supporting prediction in December 2006…
“..before 2020, some part of Japan is likely to submerge, some mountains may give in and landslides could create much havoc…”
Well I guess with little understanding of Plate Tectonics and a high school knowledge of what goes on in ‘The Pacific Ring of Fire’ this could be seen as …. Pathetic… I mean ‘prophetic’.
What is of concern I guess is the fact that the media are giving more and more credence to some pretty wacky and fear mongering predictions of the 2012 crowd.
Take this piece of intelligent pseudo-journalism…
“March 13, 2011- The colossal earthquake in Japan yesterday is the strongest on record for them, an 8.9 on the Richter scale. Now as the survivors sift through the debris for the dead and deal with a nuclear explosion, a tiny debate grows among scientists and astrologers. Is the approaching supermoon a mere coincidence to this and two prior disasters or is it, in fact, a warning from the heavens itself?”
Read deeper into the article and you find..
“But while astrology may not be referred to as a science, has science ever been totally reliable?”
WTF ??????
But there’s more…
“Amid these latest natural disasters and continued debate, the men and women of science have admitted that, despite extensive research, they still cannot predict earthquakes.”
And rogue Geologists and Astrologers can?
The reason any ‘scientist’ is a rogue or a pseudo-science is a pseudo-science is because the claims, when held up to careful consideration and application of ‘scientific method’ they fail; they lack rigour; they lack methodological consistency…
Oh, hold on there may be some redemption in this piece I’m commenting upon..
“An illuminating paper was written by none other than Biejing’s Normal University by the Department of Astronomy in 2006, supporting the correlation of total, partial, and annular solar eclipses, the resulting lunar and solar tides, and earthquakes. The paper relates 21 major earthquakes to lunar-solar tides. Still scientists give no credence to these findings and lunar-solar tidal studies still seem to be in its infancy”
Well there is a reference (Earth, Moon, and Planets Volume 88, Number 3, 123-129, DOI: 10.1023/A:10165711147) and the article was entitled Variation of Lunar-Solar Tidal Force and Earthquakes in Taiwan Island of China Juan Zhao, Yanben Han and Zhian Li
However quoting a single source to support an idea is really valid. Following up this resource I find that the claim of ‘solar tidal studies being its infancy’ to be a little misleading. There are a range of papers and articles on this issue (simply follow the links above, Google the authors names and check citations an cross references) BUT there are two glaring objections to the way the above paragraph seems to raise the status of the quoted paper (it was ‘illuminating’) and the objections dismissed (scientists still give no credence).
Again peer review and scientific method is intended to ensure that all research can be reported as being rigorous and methodologically ‘sound’. I’d like to think that messers Zhao, Han and Li appreciate that.
Also a correlation does not prove causation!
Just because the occurrence of two events can be mathematically linked (saw the population of Storks and the number of Human Births) does not mean that one causes the other. Again checking the literature it is obvious that the researchers involved in this are looking for mechanisms.
Let’s just throw in an observation here…
The Super Moon thing is about the relative orbits of the Earth and the Moon.
The erstwhile author I have been quoting from says..
“A supermoon happens when the full moon is closest (in its elliptical orbit) to the earth. This has occurred in 1955, 1974, 1992, and the “extreme supermoon” of 2005 (right around the time of the Indonesian tsunami). On the 19th, the moon will be only 221, 567 miles from earth, the closest in 18 years”
Ok if I remove the emotive and prejudicial stuff from the quote to reveal a ‘fact’ we read:-
“A supermoon happens when the full moon is closest (in its elliptical orbit) to the earth. This has occurred in 1955, 1974, 1992, and 2005. On the 19th (March) the moon will be 221, 567 miles from earth, the closest in 18 years”
Ok, so what does that mean.
Well the average distance from the Earth to the Moon is 238,857 miles.
Most science based sites agree that at its closest point, known as the perihelion, the Moon is 225,622 miles. And at its most distant point, called aphelion, the Moon gets to a distance 252,088 miles.
So if we take the ‘average’ distance and that quoted by the article I’m commenting on, we’re talking about the moon being 17, 290 miles closer. I wonder what that really means in terms of the effects of gravity?
I mean gravity is actually a weak force, well in relation to other forces. OK, that does sound a bit odd since it is the force which apparently keeps planets spinning.
But I can ‘prove’ it to you.
Reach out now, go on, and pick something off a nearby table or desk.
Well done!
You’ve just overcome the gravitational force of the Earth, all 6 × 1024 kilograms off it.
Now I’m not going all ‘string theory’ on you here, but suffice to say if the Super Moon can cause tectonic plates to shift (the cause of all major earthquakes and resultant Tsunami) something else must be going on. I guess when all of the Earth’s satellites are ripped out of their current orbits on the 19th we can blame the additional gravitational pull of the nearby moon.
Ok I may be being a bit flippant here, but at least I have enough sense to know that I do not know what mechanisms drive gravity and how variations in tidal forces are related to lunar orbits. But I am willing to put what I think I know into abeyance when someone puts forward a relevant, idea. I’m afraid that some of the pseudo-science which surrounds apocalyptic thinking is flawed or starts from a false premise.
Although I’ve gone off topic a bit here, I think the point is that using human tragedy within the context of an explainable, and scientifically anticipated (although not predictable) natural disaster to promote a pseudoscientific or non-falsifiable ideological view point is not on.
One of the ‘mediums’ I know deleted a number of people from her Facebook account who were getting karmically- Armageddon-focused in their rants and posts – good on her.
So to close, here’s the REAL cause of this terrible, and on-going, disaster…
Senior pastor Cho Yong-gi of Yoido Full Gospel Church, the largest Christian church in the world, has faced vicious public condemnation as he called the catastrophic Japanese quakes and tsunamis “God’s warnings.”
“I fear that this disaster may be warnings from God against the Japanese people’s atheism and materialism,”
Umm….
Ignore the doomsayers and help the relief in whatever way you can.
Alan
Envoi:
Found this piece of related news:
Patna, March 14 (IANS) The ancient science of astrology can help predict natural disasters like tsunamis, a Bihar minister has said.
“Astrology’s help can be taken to predict natural disasters like tsunamis,” Bihar Human Resource Minister P.K. Sahi said Sunday evening in his inaugural speech at the two-day meet of the Indian Council of Astrological Sciences (ICAS) here.
Sahi, a lawyer turned politician considered close to Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, said that though most people treat astrology only as something useful for making predictions, it was actually a science.
“If we go deep, we will find that it is a science. It has been practised in India since the Vedic times, helping us know about stars and planets affecting us and suggesting remedies,” he said.
Ok the politician says its for real so, case closed!
References
Interview with a Tokyo Resident: